74 - 2018-2022 China Cross-border E-commerce Transaction Forecast

China has become the largest e-commerce market in the world, accounting for over 40% of the global transaction. Local news released that Chinese cross-border e-commerce transaction reached $1.01 trillion in 2016, the figure surpassed $1.22 trillion in 2017. The positive market response strengthens the confidence of e-commerce participants, Chinese government provides further policy and investment supports to encourage cross-border e-commerce development. We strongly believe there’s another wave of growth waiting ahead of China.

The Influencing Factors of China Cross-border E-commerce

1) Strong Policy Support by Chinese Government

The booming of domestic e-commerce industry cultivates a mature environment for cross-border ebusiness. So far, 13 cross-border e-commerce pilot zones have been established in China. Hangzhou, base of Alibaba.com and JumoreGlobal.com, is the first city launched the cross-border e-commerce pilot zone across China. “The Implementation Opinion on Accelerating the Development of Cross-Border E-Commerce of Hangzhou” enacted in December 2016 stressed the importance for government to support introduce global leading enterprises, renowned cross-border e-commerce brands, build industrial park and other factors to surge the industry growth. Except for Hangzhou, Guangxi – the bridge of China and ASEAN, also issued “Internet + Circulation Plan” to boost both Guangxi local e-commerce and China-ASEAN cross-border e-commerce trade.

2) “One Belt One Road” Initiative Making Those Countries New Blue Ocean

Statistics shows that over 12% of global tangible goods trading is done via digital platforms, 50% of service cross-border trade is realized through digital methods. Among One Belt One Road countries, 26 of which achieved 30% growth of cross-border trading. From January to April, 2017, 7 One Belt One Road countries listed in the world top 20 fastest consumption growth countries. Undoubtedly, new emerging markets are developing rapidly in One Belt One Road countries and would become the key drivers of global digital economy over the next decade.

Related Article: Understanding Historical Opportunities from One Belt One Road Initiative

3) Upgraded Internet Technology Decrease Cross-border E-commerce Barriers

The wide application of internet transformed traditional concept and methods of trading. Online trading is becoming people’s priority to import and export for its great convenience and high-efficiency. Globally, many e-commerce giants with their online marketplaces like Amazon, EBay, JumoreGlobal, Alibaba, Lazada…are providing multiple choices for global traders.

However, there’re issues and problems concerned by the market.

4) Incomplete Protection of Consumer Rights and Interests

Different from domestic e-commerce transaction, cross-border e-commerce requires a higher legal system. However, the incomplete cross-border e-commerce laws and regulations provide weak protection for global traders. When more than one countries involve in the trading process or trading high value goods like commodities, related laws and regulations are the keys to avoid risks.

Cross-border E-commerce Transaction Forecast

According to statistics, the cross-border e-commerce transaction of China reached $1.01 trillion in 2016 and raised to $1.22 trillion in 2017.

JumoreGlobal Insights forecasts that China cross-border e-commerce transaction would hit $1.55 trillion in 2018, the compound growth rate for the next five years is supposed to around 23.12%, and the figure would skyrocket to $3.58 trillion in 2022.

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China Import E-Commerce Transaction Forecast

The import e-commerce transaction of China in 2016 is $0.18 trillion, achieved an increase of 32.28% over the same period. The transaction reached $0.13 trillion for the first half of 2017.

We forecast that 2018 China import e-commerce transaction would grow to $0.38 trillion, the compound growth rate for the next five years is estimated to around 30.72%, and the figure would boost to $1.13trillion in 2022.

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China Export E-Commerce Transaction Forecast

The export e-commerce transaction of China in 2016 is $0.84 trillion, showed an increase of 22.49% over the same period. The transaction reached $0.42 trillion for the first half of 2017.

We forecast that 2018 China export e-commerce transaction would increase to $1.16 trillion, the compound growth rate for the next five years is estimated to around 20.26%, and the figure would hit $2.44 trillion in 2022.

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China is definitely the e-commerce industry leader of the world, cross-border e-commerce is bound to make great contribution to China and global economy. To explore more about China market and cross-border e-commerce industry, please visit JumoreGlobal Insights.

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